Two new head coaches, one a recycled veteran and the other a young
pup, go head-to-head against the winningest coach in NFL history and
another that has never endured a losing season. If they were real
estate the listings it would be two oceanfront properties and two
underdeveloped parcels. Instead it’s the AFC East Division where a
battle royale looms in 2006.
Here is my take of teams in the AFC EAST DIVISION for 2006. Coming up
next: the AFC NORTH DIVISION Enjoy…
BUFFALO
Operation Octogenarian is in full force and headquartered in Buffalo
these days. That came about when 87-year old owner Ralph Wilson took
the bull by the horns and hired 80-year old Marv Levy as the team’s
new GM. They proceeded to hire veteran Dick Jaroun as their new head
coach. Jaroun, 55 years young, started his coaching career with the
Bills in 1985 and has served two terms as a head coach with Chicago
and Detroit (interim). He inherits a team that slipped 45 YPG
offensively and 79 YPG defensively last season, finishing 5-11 on the
year. Interestingly, the last five times the Bills ended on the
short end of the win-loss column they went on to post a .500 or
better mark each and every time. A questionable draft, coupled with
question marks at quarterback, will likely have the Octo’s wondering
whether or not they’re dementia-challenged.
PLAY AGAINST: home vs. NY Jets (9/24)
MIAMI
Thanks to a season-ending six game win streak, Nick Saban delivered
as promised, turning the dead Fish into a wining team in his first
year with Miami. Prior to Thanksgiving the Dolphins were struggling
in 3-7 waters, having suffered perhaps their most embarrassing loss
in memory when they were blanked, 22-0, by the lowly Cleveland
Browns. Without panic, Saban righted the team and kept his 11-year
record in tact of having never suffered a losing season as a head
coach. Never one to tread water, he went to work in the off-season,
too, when he landed former Pro Bowl QB Duante Culpepper, along with
mammoth OT L.J. Shelton, to fortify the offense. A solid draft landed
defensive help, too. After having faced the toughest schedule in the
league each of the past two seasons, Miami tackles the 6th easiest in
2006. Things appear to be heating up in South Beach.
PLAY ON: vs. Kansas City (11/12)
NEW ENGLAND
Perhaps the most surprising moves in this year’s NFL draft were those
of the Patriots who, after witnessing a decline in their defense last
season, drafted six non-defensive players before finally calling LB
Jeremy Mincey’s name in the 6th round. What Bill Belichick really
felt was the loss of 41 YPG from his rushing offense last season,
thus the selection of RB Laurence Maroney in the 1st round (are you
listening, Corey Dillon). The Pats saw their NFL record 10-game
playoff win streak come to a halt in 2005, lending hope to others in
the league that the reign may be over. What it really means is ‘BB’
will be working overtime in the off-season to repair the damage.
Through it all they still carry the ‘rep’ as being NFL record-setters
and, thus, are a key game on every opponent’s schedule. That’s the
price you pay for success.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Cincinnati - *KEY - (10/1)
NY JETS
In the end, Herman Edwards really stood no chance. The Jets’ dip to
4-12 last season was largely propagated by a season-ending injury
list that found 12 starters names listed. Enter Eric Mangini, a Bill
Belichick protégé, whose goal is to have the club reorganized into a
winner by 2007. A solid draft brings stud OL D’Brickashaw Ferguson in
to anchor the offensive line, along with fellow 1st round choice C
Nick Mangold from Ohio State. They only hope passing on QB Matt
Leinhart was a not major mistake. Instead, Patrick Ramsey was brought
in to compete with Chad Pennington for quarterback honors. DE Kimo
von Oelhofen was signed way from Pittsburgh to plug the loss of John
Abraham. Lastly, the hope is that there are a few more miles left on
the wheels of veteran RB Curtis Martin before the lid is officially
nailed on his Hall of Fame career.
PLAY ON: home vs. Miami (10/15)
This article was extracted from the 2006 PLAYBOOK FOOTBALL
HANDICAPPERS' YEARBOOK magazine. To order your copy of this 248-page
best selling football preview click here www.playbook.com or call
1.800.PLAYBOOK for instant service.
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CONFERENCE USA 2006 FOOTBALL PREVIEW
Marc Lawrence • www.PLAYBOOK.com
After a major overhaul, the CONFERENCE USA has the look of a ride
with a new hemi. No, not quite like the muscle conferences that exist
today, instead one that has steadily developed into a pain in the ass
for opponents outside C-USA. Get to know CONFERENCE USA. They are
here to stay.
Here is my take on the CONFERENCE USA for 2006. Coming up next: the
INDEPENDENTS. Enjoy…
ALABAMA BIRMINGHAM
Another five-win season (the Blazers’ 3rd in the last 4 years) has
forced Watson Brown’s hand. After going 1-5 in games decided by
eight or less points last year, former DC Rick Christopher has been
dispatched to UAB for a second stint. Christopher’s defense was
ranked No.1 against the rush and No. 5 overall in the land when he
last roamed the Blazers’ sidelines in 2001. Particularly annoying
were Birmingham’s five straight-up losses as favorites in ’05,
especially given the fact they won the stats in four of those
contests - and in eight of their 11 games overall. Look for Brown to
go all-in in ’06.
PLAY ON: vs. Marshall (10/21)
CENTRAL FLORIDA
The highest paid football coaching staff in Florida earned their keep
last season when UCF became the most improved team in Division 1-A,
going from 0-11 to 8-5. They also became the only team in NCAA
history to post a 5-game win streak after going winless the previous
season, and one of just three teams to play seven road games and go
bowling. As a result George O’Leary garnered a couple National Coach
of the Year honors. Better news is he returns 100% of last year’s
passing yards and 99.1% of last year’s rushing yards. Still, despite
18 returning starters, the tariff figures to be a bit too rich for
our tastes.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. East Carolina (11/4)
EAST CAROLINA
Johnny Depp has nothing on Skip Holtz when it comes to steering a
pirate ship in the right direction. Holtz made quite an impact in
this first season at Greenville, reviving this once proud program
from the depths of a 3-20 log the previous two years to a respectable
5-6 finish in 2005. He’ll welcome the return of SR QB James Pinkney
who has started 25 straight games for the Cocks (only three
quarterbacks in the nation have a long skein). Making the task
challenging will be an itinerary that features no less than eight
bowlers, including all four non-conference clashes. Skip’s ahoy.
PLAY ON: vs. Navy (9/2)
HOUSTON
The numbers were up across the board for the Cougars in 2005. As a
result they landed a berth in the Forth Worth Bowl, their 2nd in
three years under promising head coach Art Briles. Better news is the
prospects of a better season in 2006 as 17 returning starters dot the
roster, including 10 from a defense that improved for the second
straight season. That fits like a glove with an offense commanded by
All-American QB Kevin Kolb and his top two wide receivers. Kolb has
started 36 straight games, tops in the nation. Top it off with eight
games in the city of Houston and the Cougars look set to pounce.
PLAY ON: vs. Memphis (11/18)
MEMPHIS
How much did RB DeAngelo Williams mean to this football team, you
ask? Consider, the 24 wins they realized the last three seasons were
the most over the same span by a Memphis football team since the
1961-63 squads. Off to the NFL, Williams leaves big shoes to fill, to
be sure. The strength of this team is the quarterback position, where
four talented signal callers reside. Billy Barefield, a true freshman
last year who guided the team to a bowl game, is the early favorite
to win back his starting job. Head coach Tommy West came to Memphis
from Clemson in 2001 and has re-instilled a winning ethic. The King
can sleep well.
PLAY ON: vs. Tennessee - *KEY off loss – (9/30)
RICE
After 12 years, Ken finally tossed in the hat as he was able to
manage only three winning seasons with Rice. Enter Todd Graham,
former assistant head coach and defensive coordinator at Tulsa.
Graham also lists Rich Rodriguez of West Virginia as a reference,
meaning defense is Priority One in his manifest. To help offset his
defensive mindset, Graham hired Major Applewhite, the former record
setting quarterback at Texas, as his offensive coordinator and QB
coach. Under Applewhite they will install a new offense, one that
will spread the field and throw the ball. Forty-six lettermen
(including 15 starters) will be vying for starting jobs as a whole
new day has dawned for the Owls.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. UCLA (9/9)
SMU
It finally happened. Phil Bennett’s infectious ‘Can Do’ attitude
permeated the team as SMU ended the season on a three-game win
streak, their longest since 1999. In the process the Mustangs
stampeded to new heights. Included in the tally was their highest win-
total in eight seasons, their first win over a ranked team since
1986, a 3-1 record against bowl teams and the No.1 ranking in red-
zone efficiency in the nation (scored 30/32 times). Fourteen
returning starters are back looking for more. The main problem is at
the quarterback slot where only signal caller on the roster has taken
a snap in Division 1-A ball. Still, we ‘Can Do’ SMU as a home pup.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Tulsa (11/18)
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Ever so subtly the Bulldogs of Southern Miss have strung together
winning seasons 12 years in a row. So it is in Hattiesburg under
Jeff Bower who enters his 17th year with the school – the 7th longest
tenure among current Division 1-A coaches. Like last year he’ll be
put to the task, having lost QB Dustin Almond to graduation.
Uncharacteristically, the Bulldog defense declined for the second
straight season, yielding an un-Bower like 394 YPG last season.
Addressing that issue becomes priority-one in 2006. Unlike last year
when they squared off against only tow wining foes, this year they’ll
go mano y mano against no less than seven bowlers. Lucky #13 may
require some luck.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Tulane (11/11)
TEXAS EL PASO
Had the Miners managed to beat Toledo in last year’s GMAC Bowl they
would have snapped an 18-year skein of season ending losses. It
didn’t happen but nonetheless, thanks to the employ of Mike Price,
the Miners are happy campers these days. That’s what back-to-back
8-4 bowl seasons will do for a team that had owned all of three wins
against Division 1-A schools prior to his hire. This year, behind 17
returning starters and 29 seniors – including QB Jordan Palmer
(3,503 yards and 29 TD’s last season) – they will look to break the
school record they established for total offense last year. If we
had to paint this team we’d color them dangerous.
PLAY ON: vs. SMU (10/7)
TULANE
A plethora of returning starters each of the previous two seasons has
not been all that beneficial for the Green Wave, who are 7-15 in that
span. Granted, the bulk of that record came last season when, like
many residents of New Orleans, they were rendered homeless following
the ravages of Hurricane Katrina. Head coach Chris Scelfo held his
team and coaching staff together as best he could. In fact, all nine
assistant coaches return, with four of them having lost their homes
to the hurricane. Once again they’ll be lead by 6’5” SR QB Lester
Ricard who is prepared to re-write most of the passing records in
school history. Here’s hoping for a deservedly nice homecoming.
PLAY ON: vs. SMU (9/30)
TULSA
The defending CUSA champs enter the 2006 campaign with a defense
stocked with talent and depth (two starters that missed all of the
2005 season join nine returning starters in the stop unit). This from
a defense that improved over 50 yards a game. Additionally, the
offense did the same and they return healthy, wealthy and wise, too.
Head coach Steve Kragthorpe is certainly destined to become the next
college football coaching ‘wunderkind’, and rightfully so. His teams
have averaged 38 PPG in 21 wins as he’s improved the Hurricane from a
Tropical Depression to a Category 1 in four short years. He only
hopes they don’t blow like they did in 2004.
PASS
This article was extracted from the 2006 PLAYBOOK FOOTBALL
HANDICAPPERS' YEARBOOK magazine. To order your copy of this 248-page
best selling football preview click here www.playbook.com or call
1.800.PLAYBOOK for instant service.
Marc Lawrence has enjoyed success as a handicapper since 1975. He publishes the Playbook Football Handicappers Yearbook magazine and the weekly Playbook Football and Playbook Basketball newsletters. He is also a featured columnist for Football News.
In addition, he hosts Right on the Line, a 30-minute nationally syndicated cable TV show that airs Saturday mornings during the football season, and the 60-minute Right on the Line radio show, heard every weekend on over 100 radio stations across America, including the Sirius satellite radio network.
You can watch and listen to Right on the Line at www.playbook.com.
